Conventional wisdom holds that leadership transitions are periods of heightened uncertainty as foreign actors seek to probe the resolve of new and untested leaders. However, a careful examination of leadership transitions in the Asia-Pacific reveals a striking pattern of stability. What explains the absence of diplomatic and military conflict following the election or installation of new leaders? We argue that campaign rhetoric, whether hawkish or dovish, is a more credible signal of policy in the aftermath of leadership turnover than typically acknowledged. Examining China's relations with fourteen new administrations in the United States, Japan and Taiwan, we find that China uses campaign rhetoric to calibrate its policies toward new leaders. Rather than probing new leaders, China's engagement and restraint helps account for the remarkable absence of conflict in the aftermath of democratic turnover, even though crises with China have taken place during the majority of these leaders' time in office.