Campaign Rhetoric and the Surprising Stability of Leadership Transitions in the Asia-Pacific
Conventional wisdom holds that leadership transitions are periods of heightened uncertainty as foreign actors seek to probe the resolve of new and untested leaders. However, a careful examination of leadership transitions in the Asia-Pacific reveals a striking pattern of stability. What explains the absence of diplomatic and military conflict following the election or installation of new leaders? We argue that campaign rhetoric, whether hawkish or dovish, is a more credible signal of policy in the aftermath of leadership turnover than typically acknowledged.